An integrated SWOT based fuzzy AHP and fuzzy MARCOS methodology for digital transformation strategy analysis in airline industry

Driven by business strategies, digital transformation (DT) facilitates dramatic change in air passenger behavior. This study aims to determine and analyze different DT strategies (DTSs) with the help of an integrated SWOT-based fuzzy AHP-MARCOS methodology that is proposed for the first time in the literature for this purpose. This methodology is validated with a case study concerning the airline industry in Turkey. The weights of the SWOT factors are determined with the fuzzy AHP method. The fuzzy MARCOS approach is used to select the most suitable DTS. The most appropriate strategy is obtained as “focusing on differentiated digital customer experience and service quality by the adaptation of business models to DT to provide benefits”.     

基于VAR模型探究BDI和燃油价格的相互影响

燃油价格近期受疫情影响出现剧烈波动,国际干散货航运市场也受到巨大影响。基于Clarksons官方数据库1992年1月至2020年4月相关数据,进行实证研究发现,国际燃油价格的暴跌对波罗的海干散货运价指数的下降有着显著的正向影响;燃油价格虽然也在一定程度上受到BDI的影响,但存在一定的滞后性。这有利于干散货运输公司根据燃油价格波动预测运价指数的变化趋势,从而采取多样的方式应对冲击。也对保障干散货运输市场的稳定发展有重要意义。     

An integrated approach to the purchase decision making process of food-delivery apps: Focusing on the TAM and AIDA models

The study employed two theories, the technology acceptance model (TAM) and the Attention-Interest-Desire-Action (AIDA) model, to provide an understanding of the process of consumers accepting an on-demand food-delivery app, and to establish the effect of marketing communication on outcomes related to consumer behavior. A conceptual model and hypotheses were developed by combining the key constructs of the two models to predict behavioral intentions. Findings revealed the attention and interest in the AIDA model related strongly to the salient behavioral beliefs of TAM, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. Thus, it can be concluded that marketing communication acts as an external element in the process of accepting new innovations. Besides, it was confirmed that attitude towards the adoption of new technology acts as a mediator that promotes desire for the app. From the disciplines of information system and marketing communication, the study suggests an innovative approach to incorporating models.     

经济新常态下煤炭企业发展战略研究

着眼于当前我国煤炭企业的新环境,我们要转变视角,致力于探索推动我国煤炭行业发展的新途径和新方法,为了更好地保护矿工的合法权益,保障煤炭行业的可持续发展,煤炭企业需要引进一些创新性技术和先进管理理念。论文主要基于关心矿工生命安全和煤炭企业安全发展的角度,对目前我国煤炭企业的发展提出一些思考和策略。     

Extinction accounting and accountability: Empirical evidence from the west European tissue industry

Recently, human activities are more and more invasive with respect to biodiversity. Several studies highlighted the key role played by accountants in contributing to the development of tools able to support company in assessing, reporting, and disseminating, as well as accomplishing, the preservation of natural species and ecosystems (King and Atkins, 2016). Corporate reporting of environmental information might increase the credibility of forest certifications, given that some scholars argued that certified forests are not often run, in a sustainable way. Moreover, certifications sometimes cover harmful forest practices (Elad, 2014) and do not ensure a good quality of environmental reporting and performance. The research question therefore intends to explore how extinction accounting and accountability (EAA) is able to reflect ex post the company's business strategy and, at the same time, influence ex ante its formulation by easing the prevention of deforestation risk and addressing the issue of credibility through specific actions. In more detail, the “Emancipatory Framework for Extinction Accounting and Accountability” (EFEAA) (Atkins and Maroun, 2018) was tested using content and interpretative analyses based on the reports inherent to top four companies working in West Europe in the tissue industry, where the preservation of forest heritage is a “compulsory route” for assuring the business sustainability, in terms of both raw material renewal and brand reputation. The findings highlighted the first attempt to carry out a qualitative research over the management of forest issues. In our study, companies tend to report advantages arising from the use of forest, but this kind of disclosure is too generic without providing evidence over the ecosystem services forests produce. Moreover, firm size affects the quantity and the quality of disclosure. At last, managerial implications and future research avenues are outlined and discussed.     

A new assessment of economic integration in East Asia: Application of an industry-specific G-PPP model

It is well known that intra-industry trade and cross-border production networks have promoted economic growth and regional integration in East Asia. However, regional supply and production chains may have been formed differently across industries, reflecting different degrees and a different scope of regional economic linkages at an industry level. This paper makes a threefold contribution. First, to assess industry-level differences, this study adopts the generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) model using industry-specific producer prices. Second, the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model is employed to allow for possible nonlinearity arising from the dynamic nature of regional economic growth and development. Third, the Granger causality test is also conducted to assess whether regional economies have autonomously integrated. The empirical results reveal that economic integration has progressed more autonomously in the electrical industry, as well as in the transportation equipment industry, as China and the ASEAN countries have become the final destination markets for finished products in these two industries.     

Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies

The recent COVID-19 crisis has revealed the urgent need to study the impact of an infectious disease on market economies and provide adequate policy recommendations. The present paper studies the optimal lockdown policy in a dynamic general equilibrium model where households are altruistic and they care about the share of infected individuals. The spread of the disease is modeled here using SIS dynamics, which implies that recovery does not confer immunity. To avoid non-convexity issues, we assume that the lockdown is constant in time. This strong assumption allows us to provide analytical solutions. We find that the zero lockdown is efficient when agents do not care about the share of infected, while a positive lockdown is recommended beyond a critical level of altruism. Moreover, the lockdown intensity increases in the degree of altruism. Our robust analytical results are illustrated by numerical simulations, which show, in particular, that the optimal lockdown never trespasses 60% and that eradication is not always optimal.     

The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag

The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.     

Ratio-based design hour determination for airport passenger terminal facilities

To avoid both over-design and under-sizing of airport passenger terminal facilities such as security checkpoints, the infrastructure is designed for a specifically determined design load. As such, the design load is considered for a short period of time, usually an hour of operation, during which peak, though not necessarily maximum, demand occurs. For strategic planning applications, future design loads can be determined by either fictitious flight schedules or ratio-based models which forecast the relationship between design load and annual demand. This study presents two ratio-based methods which allow the direct determination of design hour loads (DHL) for passenger terminal facilities. The unsaturated DHL model considers the relationship between observed passenger flows in the terminal and aggregated annual demand data. The saturated DHL model includes several operational constraints which limit the actual DHL, such as limitations in the runway system or the fleet mix operating at an airport. Both models are applied to two real-world airports, for which the DHL of the security checkpoint facilities is estimated from large datasets covering multiple years. Results are significant at the 5 % level and suggest that the proposed ratio-based methods are appropriate for airport strategic planning applications.     

山区农户对森林旅游业的参与意愿及影响因素研究

在行为经济学相关理论的基础上,基于福建山区221个农户的调研数据,运用有序Probit模型探究影响农户参与森林旅游业意愿的主要因素。研究结果表明:山区农户对森林旅游业的参与意愿不高;性别、健康状况、家庭成员是否为党员或干部、屋前是否通公路、家庭成员累计出外打工时间、对森林旅游政策了解程度、政府扶持力度及未来收益预期等因素是影响农户对森林旅游业参与意愿的主要因素。基于此,建议提高农村妇女参与森林旅游业的综合能力、加强政策的支持与引导及推进森林旅游业产业链延伸等。